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The spectre of a new Cold War and WWIII in offing

Russia-Ukraine Crisis Brings World to Brink of New Cold War and WW3 Nightmare

War is an organised murder and nothing else –by Harry Patch, last surviving soldier of World War I. Everywhere there is politics to gain or desire for something through dominating over others. The World is under the threat of 3rd World War due to the tension of Ukraine-Russia crisis. We should oppose any kind of war and injustice. You should have sympathy with common people either Ukrainians or Russians. Russia is repeating her 2014 action when she annexed Crimea. The present scenario arises because Ukraine is willing to join NATO, the military alliance of USA and European nations formed during the cold war to curtail the influences of communist USSR. First cold war between USA and USSR ended with the fall of Soviet Union in 1991.Collapse and end of that cold war is often viewed as the victory of United States democracy over Soviet Union’s communism and dictatorship. This had hurt the Russian a lot. Putin, whose grandfather had been a cook for Lenin and later Stalin, has the mindset to revenge and revive the territory after de-militarised and de-nazification (as Putin claimed) of the Ukraine with a strong dream of once world super power state under USSR federation. Russia does not want the West interferences over the countries near its border through the US led alliance expansion. History tells us that war does not determine who is right but who is left. In this scenario, Ukraine should not inclined on any of these two super power sides but better to adopt the policy like non-alignment that India does. It is very simple that Russian Ukrainian crisis is just a border dispute where the Russian does not want the USA or the EU influences on Ukraine. That is why, even India has neither sided with anyone by abstaining in UN resolution passed. Ukraine neither shares any border with India nor does the two countries have any special relationship but India can’t escape from this crisis. Why ? Because for India this crisis is not Russia-Ukraine but Russian including China vs West. Now it becomes a difficult, risky and complicated situation for India to maintain a neutral stand when the two (West under USA and Russia including china) demands India s’ support. The explanation over this view will be followed shortly.

Democracy has different versions in the West. Russia has its own model of government which is not same with West. Today we all are sad for Ukraine but we have to feel equally for Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran.. that USA destroyed with its allies before. There are anti-war protests around the world and in the heart of Moscow. The world is shouting slogans against Russia. People have taken to the streets. They are protesting the war and war mongers. Presently USA and EU are doing nothing to stop the war but only slapping sanctions that will have little effect over Russia. Is your sanctions compensate the lives of Ukrainians who lost during the war ? All you the EU are playing the same broken records. You all are doing only media interviews and nothing else. Ukrainians president claims that the world super leaders are watching the war from distances and he is defending his country alone. Russia already knows and had done the calculation of the sanctions. You all countries including USA and Russia are playing over weak countries for your world super power ambition. So, for me, I will say, it is the mistake of both US led NATO and Russia dreamed USSR. It is because why Ukraine has to become a victim due to this two world revel. Ukrainians, for their country, has the liberty  what to choose and how to live. With the thought that an unjust peace is better than a just war, the present Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy after declaring martial law in the state fight for his country alone now. Putin claimed of de-nazification makes no sense as present president Volodymyr Zelenskyy‘s great grandfather itself once fought against Hitler during the 2nd WW. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the grandson of Simon Ivanovich Zelenskyy who was the sole survivor of Jewish family killed by Germany dictator’s Adolf Hitler during World War II.

Ukraine had been a part of the Russian Federation from 1922 but was independent after 1991 USSR collapsed that had USA ‘s  hand. With that breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia lost control of 14 former republics it had. But the loss of Ukraine was the most painful to Russia.  Ukraine after got independence gradually sides with the West and is planning to join NATO. NATO is founded in 1949 with USA as main leader. The other countries are United kingdom,Portual,Norway,Netherland,Luxemboury,Italy,Iceland,France,Denmark,Canada,Belgium.In 1952 Greece and Turkey were added to NATO,1955 West Germany,1982 Spain was added .Again in 1990 Germany join NATO and gradually in 1999 Bulgaria,Estonia,Latvia,Lithuania,Romania,Slovakia and Slovenia joined it. After this, Albania and Croatia in 2009, and in 2020 there came North Macedonia. Countries under NATO have a strong position in military because by chance war occurs, these countries collectively under NATO will join and help among themselves to fight with the modern equipment of NATO’s weapons and nuclear they have against the enemies whom they wish. And at the same time, NATO under USA leadership is expanding in the world specially towards the east and even near the Russian border making Putin furious. Russians see this as a threatening encroachment towards its borders and still continues to condemn it. As claimed by Putin, Russia is defending and securing its national interests and borders. But, it is not good that NATO under USA is trying to influence all over the world thereby pressuring Russia. and Putin is also trying to show  his resistance to the EU and USA through waging war on Ukraine. Since the war has not been stopped, it shows the failure or toothless of UNO or gradual weakness of USA with time. This is the first half history of Russia-Ukraine war crisis. Second hidden one is Putin,in his dream, is still having the once so called world super power USSA revival to counter the EU and United states. Over and above, Putin even thinks that since Ukraine was once with USSR ,it is the part of Russia. Yes, we agreed but Ukraine was forcefully russified. In 1700 Catherine, the great, shipped ethnic Russians in Ukraine and school were told to teach Russian languages. Again by 1800, Ukrainian languages were banned. In 1930 Russian leader Stalin steered a famine killing millions of Ukrainians and re-populated the areas with ethnic Russians. That is why eastern Ukraine is richly populated with Russian speaking people .So, it was made and designed to be like that because the land is fertile, has coal and iron.  But I don’t agree to this thought because claiming Ukraine on the basis of colonial history is totally wrong. Otherwise it will be like Britain claiming India or South Africa, Spain claiming the Philippines.So,past imperialism can’t justify present day expansion and revival of USSR as Putin desires.

Now let me quickly tell you the domestic political parties in Ukraine. Basically, there are three political parties in Ukraine. The first category includes those political parties who are pro-Western, pro-NATO, anti-Russian and mainly speaking Ukrainian language and are very liberal. These people are largely dominated in western Ukraine. Example in this category is present president Volodymyr Zelenskyy who openly opposed Russians occupation and with whom Russia not happy with him and also his deepening relationship with the West, over and above planning to join the NATO. The president pulses represents the Ukrainians. Second one are those who are pro-Russian speaking Russian language, They like pro-Soviet culture. They criticize EU and are anti-USA. These people mainly live in eastern Ukraine.E.g Luhansk and Donetsk whom they called rebel of Ukraine due to the strong support of Russia.E.g former president Viktor Yanukovych. Last political party are those who focus on local interests and regional called ideology of regionalism. This party is newly immersed in Ukraine.

Everybody knows that any kind of war will further increase global inflation. Effect of corona pandemic has not yet finished, another scenario is knocking at our door. Stock market has already been in red colour. Prices of petroleum, cooking oil and many others will soon going to be sky rocketed. UK has targeted five major Russian banks. If the Ukraine-Russia crisis escalates then sanctioned by EU and USA over Russia verses counter reply from Russia through its natural gas pipeline will affect the prices of essential commodities in Europe since Europe imports 1/3 of natural gas from Russia. Some gas pipeline are passing through Ukraine and this will provide leverage to Putin in any dispute with the West.So,that will soon affect EU financial markets, economy and industries badly. This may even withdraw the foreign investors from their market . That is why Germany, France, Croatia except US are softer approach to this crisis. None of its allies rather than the USA is interested in Russia-Ukraine and Biden is barking too much on this issue. On the other hand, US and EU sanctions will make Russia more dependent on China who is a close ally of it. Economic sanctions on Russia will affect the whole world and EU including USA itself in the long run. At the same time ,India has to initiate for evacuation of Indians from Ukraine soil at the earliest.

Before it was attacked by Russia, Ukraine had strong hope that NATO and USA will help and support her. But it was not as wishes. Russia war over Ukraine highlights the efficiency or resistance of the international organisations and power of many others countries. Ukraine crisis is the testing of UNO and Biden external foreign political affair over other countries. Biden reply exposes his weakness of leadership, for not able to maintain sovereignty and freedom of a country. In this diplomatic issue, it has also become a political test for India too. This is not the first time for India. With his non-alignment policy, during the cold war when the world had divided into two blocks(USA bloc vs USSR bloc),India was trying for a balanced approach. Now, firstly if India sides with Russia on the basis of his old true friend, then India has to face or inviting the strong economic sanctions of the Biden and EU. This will make more worst  to Modi during this bad economic scenario happened due to  corona pandemic. At the same time, India too will not get any support from USA to counter India biggest threat from China and its expansionist policy over Arunachal and North East of India. Secondly, if India votes in favour of USA and EU thereby against the Russia who is a reliable partner of India, who is doing joint research/development in defence and who even support Kashmir issue along with UNSC permanent seat for India at UN, then military support from Russia will hampered. Not only this, India has to face China threat more and more since China,where there is communist party and Myanmar,a military rule, are the allies of Russia. This will adversely affect the North-East including Manipur.Even Pakistan prime Minister met the Putin in the first day of the Ukraine-Russian war. All knows that China too favours Pakistan. Definitely, there is a high chance that they will become an axis. This means there are enemies all over Indian border now. So, India has to take a careful decision in this regard.

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