A popular government has been installed in Manipur 9 days ahead of the President’s Rule, PR, in the state completing one year. Saved in the process was an imminent dissolution of the 12th Manipur Legislative Assembly, for it is unlikely an extension of the ‘Suspended Animation’ the Assembly has been put under since February 13, 2025, would have been approved by the Parliament even if PR were to be extended.
A decision to extend PR beyond a year would have also invited Constitutional complications. The 44th amendment in 1978 which curbed the powers given to the President by the Emergency era 38th amendment in respect of the use of Articles 356 and 352, predicates this. PR now can be extended beyond a year only in the event of an armed rebellion or a report confirming infeasibility of election by the Election Commission of India.
On February 4, after a seemingly desperate conclave of all BJP legislators from Manipur at the BJP head office in New Delhi, moderated and supervised by BJP National General Secretary, Tarun Chugh, and BJP central leader in charge of Northeast, Dr. Sambit Patra, a consensus was reached on who should lead the next government once the Assembly was resuscitated out of its coma.
Yumnam Khemchand Singh emerged as the choice, and together with him four others were agreed to be in the first list to be sworn in as cabinet ministers. From the choice of MLAs for the new cabinet, the delicate but inevitable ethnic and party balancing act in Manipur’s current volatile situation is evident.
The chief minister, a Meitei, is to have two deputy chief minsters, Nemcha Kipgen, a Kuki, and Losii Dikho, a Naga. Again, while Khemchand and Nemcha are from the BJP, Losii is from Naga People’s Front, NPF, a BJP ally with five MLAs.
Of the two other MLAs awarded cabinet berths, one is Khuraijam Loken Singh, of National People’s Party, NPP, another BJP ally with six MLAs. The other is Govindas Konthoujam, BJP. This importance given to allies although the BJP commands a comfortable majority in the house with 37 MLAs in the 60-member Assembly, is probably a precautionary measure in case of rebellions within the party.
By the ceiling on cabinet size introduced by 91nd constitutional amendment in 2003, Manipur can have a 12-member council of ministers, including the chief minister. With five already distributed, there are seven seats left which can be as much a cause for problems or else levers for their solutions later.
After their meeting in Delhi, most of the MLAs rushed back to Imphal. By 4pm, the Governor, Ajay Kumar Bhalla, declared the PR lifted and no sooner Khemchand visited him to stake his claim to form the next government. By 6pm, the swearing in ceremony was underway at the Lok Bhavan. Four of the new cabinet members took their oaths of office and secrecy in person, while the fifth, Nemcha Kipgen, did so online from the Manipur Bhavan, New Delhi.
Two other Kuki-Zo MLAs, Ngursanglur Sanate, BJP, and L.M. Khoute, Janata Dal (United), JDU, were also present in Imphal for the swearing in ceremony, indicating, apart from the message that ethnic tensions have defused in Imphal, that they could also be inducted into the cabinet if and when there is a next expansion.
Khemchand won the race for several factors. One of these is the courage he had shown on December 8, to make a surprise visit to a Kuki internally displaced people camp at Litan on a trip to Ukhrul, to convey his Christmas wishes for peace and reconciliation, warming many hearts. He therefore probably received the nods even from his Kuki-Zo colleagues.
Again, the transparency with which he invested his MLA local area development funds during both his terms as MLA won wide admirations, even of his rivals, though grudgingly. Lastly, he is an unabashed RSS affiliate, therefore had powerful backers.
There are two foreseeable reasons behind the felt need in the BJP camp to revive the current Assembly. The more charitable of these is a realisation that a PR has limitations in conflict resolution beyond a certain point. In the routine businesses of governance such as law-and-order upkeep, running public services, project implementations, etc., PR’s bureaucrat-run governance can be excellent.
However, in any conflict resolution effort, where the last mile in the long trek calls for intimate understanding and familiarity of local communities, their leaders and organisations, so as to be able to motivate and initiate them sit across the negotiating table, popularly elected leaders become vital.
The other anticipated reason for the rush is electoral calculus. Manipur Assembly elections are due one year away in February 2027, and the BJP obviously would want to have the advantage of going to the polls as the ruling party. The harsh lesson of the 2024 Lok Sabha election in which the BJP lost both the state’s two seats, would be still haunting it. The fact the Congress, with five MLAs, have been calling for dissolution of the Assembly and for fresh election, give further credence to this speculation.
All said, seen purely from the standpoint of a possible way forward from the depressing ethnic crisis the state has been thrown into for nearly three years now, it is difficult not to see the revival of a popular government as positive.
But as always, prolonged conflicts spawn entrenched interests in the conflict itself, who begin to see the conflict as a market to bargain for gains as Paul Collier noted in his 2003 report Breaking the Conflict Trap.
This is regardless of the realisation that the Manipur is multi-ethnic and a resolution to the present conflict too cannot be reduced to a bilateral settlement between Meiteis and Kuki-Zos. The Nagas in particular have made this clear by words and actions in recent times. Not taking cognizance of this reality and refusing to look for a peaceful negotiated settlement can only perpetuate what in effect is now proving to be a war on quicksand.
This article first appeared in The New Indian Express. The original can be read HERE
Editor, Imphal Review of Arts and Politics and author
