Uncertainty of Manipur’s Political Situation and Nongthombam Biren’s Government Looms Large

Amidst the violent conflict that has been going on since May 3, 2023, ahead of the upcoming Manipur Assembly session, the simmering discontent amongst the ruling BJP MLAs has once again surfaced, and speculation of a no-confidence motion against Nongthombam Biren’s government grows, even as the Chief Minister and some of his cabinet colleagues and MLAs took a holy dip at Triveni Sangam during the Kumbh Mela in Prayagraj.

Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren on Thursday, February 6, posted on X, “At Triveni Sangam, where sacred rivers unite, the waters cleanse both body and soul. I pray for our nation and Manipur, seeking peace, strength, and prosperity. May divine grace guide us toward unity and light.”

CM Biren continued his post, “Standing at the sacred confluence of the Ganga, Yamuna, and the mystical Saraswati at Triveni Sangam, one feels the embrace of divinity itself. As the cool waters touch the soul, they wash away not just the dust of the body but the burdens of countless lifetimes. With folded hands and a heart full of devotion, I pray for the peace, prosperity, and well-being of our great nation and the beloved people of Manipur.”

Notably, Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren also shared photos of his meeting with BJP MP and senior leader Ravi Shankar Prasad in Prayagraj.

Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren was reportedly summoned by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, and he left Imphal for Delhi on an afternoon Indigo flight on Wednesday, February 5.

The Chief Minister Biren’s trip to Delhi comes soon after Manipur Rural Development and Panchayati Raj Minister Yumnam Khemchand, a known Biren critic, also travelled to Delhi on February 4 after being reportedly summoned by Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

Some reports suggest that Chief Minister Biren has been summoned to Delhi by Union Home Minister Amit Shah just two days after a Supreme Court bench, led by the Chief Justice of India, sought a forensic report on an audio clip allegedly of embattled Manipur Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren reportedly claiming he incited the violent conflict that erupted on May 3, 2023.

Earlier on January 27, Minister Khemchand met Shah, while Assembly Speaker Thokchom Satyabrata had also held discussions with the Union Home Minister for the second time after the December 9 meeting last year. These were followed by multiple rounds of talks between Amit Shah and BJP ministers and MLAs from Manipur.

Reports suggest that before his meeting with Amit Shah last month, Khemchand had met several BJP MLAs in Imphal who voiced concerns over the chief minister’s leadership and his handling of the nearly two-year-long ethnic conflict.

Meanwhile, MLA Th Radheshyam met with Amit Shah on February 2 and is currently camping in Delhi.

In the last two weeks, the Union Home Minister Amit Shah reportedly held a series of one-to-one meetings with dissident BJP MLAs, starting with the Manipur Legislative Assembly Speaker Thokchom Satyabrata in the last week of January.

Days before the Assembly session beginning February 10, several BJP MLAs, who have been upset with both Biren’s leadership and the party-led Centre’s management of the Manipur crisis, have again started putting pressure on the party leadership for a change.

A report quoted a dissident BJP MLA without naming him as saying, “For the last two years, neither the state leadership nor the Centre has come up with a roadmap for peace, and they are just diverting attention by saying that ‘we will seal the border,’ ‘we will implement the NRC,’ or ‘launch a war on drugs.’. But the main issue is the restoration of peace and normalcy. We are saying that if there is no change in this before the Assembly session begins, something big and unprecedented will happen during the session.”

“More than two-thirds of the BJP MLAs are not happy with the current leadership. So everyone is going to make some move in the interest of the public and the state. The turmoil is intolerable. We cannot wait anymore,” the report quoting another BJP MLA said.

The violent conflict has claimed at least 260 lives and more than 61,000 people have been displaced and they have been languishing in refugee camps for more than 21 months while their houses and villages were burned down, destroyed and deserted.

Meanwhile, the Manipur Congress on Monday (February 3, 2025) said that Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren had threatened MLAs and told them not to move a no-confidence motion against his government in the upcoming session of the 60-member State Assembly beginning on February 10.

Congress MLAs have urged Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla to restrain Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren from making statements that challenge the rights and privileges of the Members of the Manipur Legislative Assembly.

A Congress delegation led by former Chief Minister Okram Ibobi met Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla on February 3 at Raj Bhavan in Imphal and handed over a memorandum. Congress leaders told media persons that the party had apprised the governor of the threat.

Speaking to media persons at the Raj Bhavan gate, CLP leader and former Chief Minister Okram Ibobi decried that a statement made by Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren during a Constitution Day observation held at the BJP Manipur Pradesh office on December 14 challenged the rights and privileges of legislators.

The Chief Minister, Biren, was talking of a supposed situation where some members of the House raise a no-confidence motion against his government in the forthcoming Assembly session.

The Congress party has hinted at bringing a “No Confidence” motion during the upcoming Manipur Legislative Assembly session, scheduled to begin on February 10. It may be to get enough time to discuss the Manipur crisis in the House.

According to reports, Manipur Congress president Keisham Meghachandra said a proposal for moving a no-confidence motion would be discussed, among other things, in the Congress Legislature Party (CLP) meeting to be held on the eve of the session. “We are discussing the matter and are going to have our CLP meeting before the session, after which we will decide our future course of action. At the same time, the BJP has a divided house at present,” he said.

Amidst Congress’s plan to move a no-confidence motion against the state government for failing to protect the lives and properties of the people and to end the violence, the Union Home Minister Amit Shah seems very proactive this time to broker peace among warring groups of the BJP legislature party in Manipur.

Growing dissidence within the BJP and the decision of the National People’s Party (NPP), which withdrew its support from the Biren Government in November last year, to sit in the opposition have emboldened the Congress to make a move despite having just five MLAs in the 60-member Assembly. In the 60-member house, at least 10 members can move the motion against the government.

However, interestingly, Manipur Congress Vice-President Hareshwar Goswami filed a petition before the tribunal of the Speaker of the Manipur Legislative Assembly seeking disqualification of four NPP legislators from the Assembly. The four NPP MLAs are Mayanglambam Rameshwar Singh, Thongam Shanti Singh, Irengbam Nalini Devi, and Janghemlung Panmei.

Following the petition, the Manipur Assembly Speaker’s tribunal on February 6 issued separate notices to four National People’s Party (NPP) MLAs in the anti-defection case, asking them to furnish written comments by February 11 and attend the hearing on February 12.

In November last year, the NPP, which had 7 members, parted ways with Biren’s government. Earlier, the NPP, an ally of BJP, clarified that it will resume supporting the Manipur government once Nongthombam Biren is replaced as the Chief Minister. Now, the NPP has 6 members in house as its Manipur Unit President and MLA from Tadubi Assembly Constituency, N. Kayishii passed away on January 18, 2025.

The Assembly session beginning February 10 happens to be the most opportune timing for both the opposition Congress and anti-Biren BJP MLAs.

Failing to convince the party high command, the anti-Biren BJP MLAs are said to have been plotting a plan to bring down Nongthombam Biren from the Chief Minister on the floor of the House. Anticipating such a possibility, the State Government had been reportedly deferring convening the assembly session until it was left with no option.

There would have been a constitutional crisis in the state if the session had not been held by the second week of February. As per the constitutional provision, an assembly cannot defer a sitting for more than six months. The last 6th Session of the 12th Manipur Legislative Assembly was held for nine days from July 31 to August 12, 2024, while the 5th Session of the 12th Manipur Legislative Assembly was held from February 28 to March 5, 2024. There were only two sessions in the calendar year 2024.

The opposition Congress and other political parties in the INDIA Bloc in Manipur, veteran politicians, and political observers argued that the ruling BJP government had violated the Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business in the Manipur Legislative Assembly, where Rule 17A states that “subject to Article 174 of the Constitution of India, in every calendar year the Assembly shall have not less than three sessions, namely, the Budget Session, the Autumn Session, and the Winter Session, with a minimum of 50 sitting days.”

In June 2023, when a group of BJP MLAs visited New Delhi to press for a leadership change of their government, Manipur Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren, under fire over his handling of the violent conflict in the state for almost two months, was on the verge of resigning. But there was an incident on June 30, 2023, where the supporters of Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren blocked his way to Raj Bhavan to tender his resignation and tore up the resignation letter.

In October last year, it was reported that 19 MLAs from the treasury bench urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a letter to replace Nongthombam Biren for failing to resolve the crisis. Leaked portions of the letter revealed that Speaker Thokchom Satyabrata, Ministers Thongam Bishwajit and Yumnam Khemchand were among the first signatories. Bishwajit and Khemchand were known dissenters, while Speaker Satyabrata was earlier a loyalist of Nongthombam Biren. And at present, Thongam Bishwajit is always seen in Chief Minister Biren’s domain.

Further, the rift within the ruling BJP MLAs was evident when several members did not attend a crucial meeting of ruling MLAs on November 18 last year convened by Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren to discuss the law and order situation in the state.

As many as 11 MLAs skipped an NDA meeting. Notices were served to them for their absence. Out of the 11, at least 9 were from BJP, one from the National People’s Party, and one Independent. Around seven MLAs were on leave, including three BJP legislators. Officially, it was claimed that about 26 legislators attended the meeting.

Earlier, the Kuki People’s Alliance (KPA), with two MLAs in the Manipur assembly, withdrew its support from the BJP-led state government in August 2023 following the outbreak of the violent conflict on May 3, 2023. In the 60-member assembly, BJP has 37 MLAs, including 5 JDU-turned-BJP MLAs; JDU has one; and there are three independent MLAs supporting the government. Five MLAs from the Naga People’s Front (NPF) are also backing the government. Congress, having five MLAs, is in the opposition.

In a significant development, the final hearing for the disqualification case of five JDU MLAs was conducted on February 7, 2025, at the tribunal of the Speaker of the Manipur Legislative Assembly. After hearing arguments from the counsels representing both the petitioners and the respondents for approximately three hours starting from 11:30 AM, the Speaker reserved the judgement.

The five JDU MLAs under scrutiny in the disqualification case, filed by Congress Vice President Hareshwar Goswami under the Tenth Schedule of the Indian Constitution, are Thangmeiband AC MLA Khumukcham Joykisan, Tipaimukh AC MLA Ngursanglur Sanate, Jiribam AC MLA Md Achab Uddin, Wangkhei AC MLA Thangjam Arunkumar, and Churachandpur AC MLA former DGP L M Khaute.

Meanwhile, the 10 MLAs belonging to Kuki-Zomi tribes who have been demanding separate administration since May 12, 2023, and have not been attending Manipur assembly sessions since then and are not expected to attend the upcoming session too. The 10 MLAs comprise seven BJP MLAs, two KPA MLAs, and one independent MLA.

The remaining MLAs expected to attend the Manipur Assembly beginning February 10 comprise 30 BJP members, five members of BJP’s ally NPF, one from another NDA ally JDU, two Independents, five Congress members, and six members of NPP, which withdrew support from the Biren government last year.

However, reports quoting sources in the central BJP ruled out any change of guard in Manipur in the near future. They pointed out that in the North Eastern Council meeting held in Agartala last December, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had clarified that Biren would continue in his post and that with both the Centre and the State focusing on strengthening the border security, other CMs in the region should also support their Manipur counterpart in the mission.

It is unlikely for the Centre to remove Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren, who has been in the eye of a storm for failing to control the violent conflict that has gripped the state since May 3, 2023, if India is really carrying out a proxy war in Manipur and its border areas against the insurgents as claimed by the Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity (COCOMI), many civil society organisations, and individuals. Moreover, the Union Home Minister Amit Shah told the Indian Parliament, Lok Sabha on August 9, 2023, that Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren is cooperating with the Centre and he will not be removed from the Chief Minister.

One of the reasons why the national leadership of the BJP might not have wanted to change the chief minister is not to disturb the status quo of Nemcha Kipgen and Letpao Haokip being cabinet ministers who belong to the 10 MLAs demanding separate administration.

However, in the emerging political development in Manipur, if Chief Minister Biren is not changed before the Assembly session, the possibility of a no-confidence motion is very high, and speculations about it grow, and the BJP is to face an embarrassing situation. Therefore, Amit Shah is said to have been trying to avert any such embarrassing situation for the party by persuading the dissident groups. Amit Shah reportedly told the dissident MLAs, during their meeting with him, to resolve the differences and let the assembly session proceed smoothly.

However, it is unlikely for the dissident MLAs to let the golden opportunity for bringing down Nongthombam Biren from Chief Minister during the 6th Session of the 12th Manipur Assembly slip away.

Even in the case of a no-confidence motion, the BJP will be reluctant to issue a whip on its members considering the 7 BJP MLAs who have not been attending the sessions of the Manipur Legislative Assembly. If a whip is likely to come and the dissident BJP MLAs are determined and united enough to bring down Biren’s government, will they merge into another party under the 10th Schedule of the Indian Constitution if they can command two-thirds of its total members? If that happens, will the Centre keep the Manipur Legislative Assembly under suspended animation?

Nevertheless, uncertainty about Manipur’s political situation and Nongthombam Biren’s government looms large.