The battlelines are clear now. If the mood indicated by the chatters on social media is any indication, the fight is set to be between the ruling BJP and allies, and the opposition combined. Those anxious to dislodge the BJP are keen that all parties other than those openly aligned with the BJP step aside and to leave field open for the candidate set up by the main opposition party – Congress. who has since been also proclaimed as the consensus INDIA, or Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, candidate. They also seem eager to label all other candidates of non-BJP parties who do not heed this appeal, as Trojan horses meant to erode the opposition unity.
It may very well be true that others in the contest generally would be sharing the anti-BJP votes, thereby commonly eroding each other’s own vote banks, but it is unrealistic to expect everybody to align to one or the other of the two emerging blocs even at the cost of sacrificing their own survival chances as recognized independent political parties in a multi-party democracy. This is especially so because each party, big and small, have their own survival battles to be fought, beyond even the dream of winning elections for a share of state power.
If sacrifices can be asked for in terms of not setting up candidates in this election, perhaps it will be from only truly independent candidates with a measure of fairness. The qualification “truly” is necessary as some independent candidates are classified as such out of technical necessity only but are not unaffiliated. These can be either candidates set up by yet to be recognized political parties or else political parties which have been derecognized by the Election Commission of India, ECI, because they have not been able to fulfil the criteria for recognition in past elections.
Take the case of the Manipur People’s Party, MPP, born out of the popular and passionate public agitation in the late 1960s and early 1970s, to have Manipur upgraded from its then Union Territory status to a full-fledged State. It also became a formidable player in Manipur’s political field once till it began atrophying. Today the party is not even a pale shadow of what it was once and has even been derecognized by the Election Commission of India, because it is not able to keep up with the basic standards required for recognition as a State party. The once very familiar party symbol of bicycle is also no longer its patent.
The MPP is setting up one candidate in the Manipur Inner Parliamentary Constituency in the forthcoming Lok Sabha election, popular film personality, R.K. Somorendro alias Kaiku, but unfortunately none in the Outer Manipur Parliamentary Constituency. The point is, parties such as MPP will have to keep setting up candidates and hope to live up to the ECI standard to become a recognized political party again and gain back its election symbol.
But any candidate MPP sets up in Parliamentary of Assembly election will have to for now go to the election as an independent candidate, although the party would have made it known to the election office the particular candidate is theirs. This is the case with Kaiku, but half-literate conspiracy theory addicts and social media trolls are quick to jump to the conclusion that Kaiku has had a fight with MPP which is why he is contesting as an independent.
Without going into details and nuances, very briefly, for a political party to become recognized as a State party, the candidates it sets up in an Assembly or Parliamentary election will have to win a total of at least 8 percent of valid votes polled in that election in the State, or else win at least 3 percent of the seats either in the State Assembly or else of the number of Parliamentary seats allotted for the State. To be recognized as a national party, it has to replicate this achievement in at least four different States.
Considering the combined electorate size in Manipur is between 20 and 21 lakhs with about 10 lakhs in each of its two Parliamentary constituencies, and since the MPP is setting up only one candidate, this candidate will have to get about 1.6 lakh votes alone even if he does not emerge winner, for the party to become recognized as a State party by the ECI. If he wins the seat of course that would be winning 50 percent of the State’s seats therefore automatically revive his party’s recognition by the ECI. If the party were capable of setting up candidates in both seats, this burden could have been shared by the two candidates, but for now, this dying party is unlikely to have the resource or support base think of trying this.
The point is, parties like the MPP which are fighting for their survival and relevance in the State’s political arena, cannot be blamed for wanting to field candidates at Assembly or Parliamentary election, even at the cost of being blind to deemed need for alliances for deemed higher causes. In a way, this somewhat narrow motivation also very much reflects what Abraham Maslow predicted in his need hierarchy theory. This theory says needs come in ascending hierarchy and unless the base needs are first taken care of, the individual/community or institution, cannot be expected to aspire for the higher needs. As for instance, a starving beggar cannot be expected to appreciate fine art or the dangers of climate change. Only when he has the guarantees of food and shelter would his mind become open up to the higher motivations.
In a way it will be good if Indian democracy, and therefore Manipur too, ultimately moves towards a 2-party system not by any rigid structure but by inclination of the society at large, for then the people’s mandate will be much clearer. However, as of today this remains a far dream in India even after 75 years of experience of electoral democracy, and perhaps this is unavoidable, considering the diversity of languages, ethnicities, religions and geography of country.
Manipur, is almost a replica of this diversity on a smaller canvas, therefore it is also having to bear the burden of the same uncertainties. So far, except in small interludes, when one party become too dominant, the need for a 2-party system has never been felt too strongly. When this condition becomes too pervasive and entrenched, the need for opposition parties to also gravitate under a single banner will become a reality. A two-party system will thus have also crystalised.
Manipur it seems is going through the throes of this crisis at the moment. On the one side is the ruling BJP, standing alone and confident that as a ruling party in both the Centre and State, will sail through the contest easily in the Inner Manipur Parliamentary seat, though in the Christian dominated Outer Manipur Constituency, the party has chosen not to field a candidate and to instead lend its support the its ally, the Naga People’s Front, NPF. The party’s traditional rival, Congress at this moment seems to be the only party which can dislodge this dominance, but can parties like the MPP be blamed for thinking of its own survival first than the threat of the bigger fight against a single party’s emerging hegemony? The answer to this question simply cannot be presumed as obvious.
Editor, Imphal Review of Arts and Politics and author
