Although there is a report of the intent to move a resolution to extend the President’s Rule in Manipur presently being examined by a Select Committee are among the tentative businesses proposed by the Narendra Modi Government for the Monsoon Session of Parliament starting July 21, 2025, the political future of Manipur still remains uncertain as the State continues to grapple with the violent conflict between the Kuki-Zomi militants and the Meitei community that erupted on May 3, 2023.
Manipur has been under President’s Rule since February 13, 2025 following the collapse of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government. On February 9, 2025 amidst the unrelenting violent conflict Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren who was summoned by the Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi tendered his resignation, soon after reaching Imphal with BJP’s Northeast-in-Charge Sambit Patra, to Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla barely 24 hours ahead of the commencement of the 7th Session of the 12th Manipur Legislative Assembly on February 10, 2025.
The violent conflict has left more than 61,000 homeless, at least 270 people dead, 32 persons still untraceable, thousands of houses destroyed and burned down to ashes, villages and residential areas were bull-dozed and wiped out.
Furthermore, the violent conflict has left the State deeply divided along ethnic lines, and large areas of Manipur including National Highways under de facto control of Kuki-Zomi militants, severing physical contact between the Meitei and Kuki-Zomi communities. The Meiteis are not allowed to cross the “buffer zones” enforced by the Security Forces and move on National Highways. The Meiteis are sieged in the Central Valley for more than two years; and Kuki-Zomis remain unable to enter the Central Valley and access even the Imphal Airport.
With the State Assembly in suspended animation and the intent of the Central Government to extend the President’s Rule further, questions arise over whether a new government as dreamed by BJP MLAs can be formed amidst the ongoing conflict. The choice is not merely administrative but deeply political, influenced by security concerns, geopolitical calculations, and the hidden agendas of New Delhi as alleged by the people of Manipur. The BJP in power at the Centre and the Union Government of India (GOI) seem to be in dilemma and caught in between the party interests and national interests.
The intent to extend President’s Rule suggests that the Central Government sees no immediate possibility of restoring stability through an elected government. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which previously governed Manipur, has been unable to resolve the conflict, raising concerns about whether a new government in the present situation would only deepen divisions rather than resolve the crisis.
The primary obstacle to restoring an elected government is the hardened position of the Kuki-Zomi groups for a Separate Administration while the Meiteis and Nagas demand for detection and deportation of illegal immigrants with the implementation of National Register of Citizens (NRC). Moreover, the Meiteis including Pangal and other minority tribes who want to maintain their independent distinct identities stand for the territorial unity and integrity of Manipur where all the ethnic groups live in peaceful coexistence. However, the violent conflict has hardened ethnic divisions, making a neutral administration very difficult to function.
The Central Government now faces a critical decision whether 1) to extend President’s Rule for another six months by moving a resolution in the Monsoon Parliament, or 2) to revive the Suspended Assembly and reinstate a new BJP Government.
This analysis tries to broadly examine the political, security, and geopolitical factors shaping New Delhi’s decision, including 1) the ongoing violent conflict and its impact on governance, 2) the BJP’s electoral calculations in Manipur, 3) Geopolitical concerns including Myanmar-China nexus, insurgency, and border security, 4) the alleged hidden agendas of the Indian state in prolonging the situation and Central Rule.
It is well known to all why President’s Rule was imposed in Manipur when there has been total breakdown of law and order since May 3, 2023. Manipur has witnessed ethnic cleansing of Meiteis from Churachandpur, Kangpokpi, Saikul and Moreh by the Kuki-Zomi militants to claim the areas as their exclusive territories; and the retaliatory actions from the Meiteis in Manipur’s Central Valley against the Kuki-Zomis made them left Imphal. The Kuki-Zomi attacks against Meiteis have engaged in burning houses, bulldozing villages, forced displacements, and massacres while the retaliatory actions from the Meiteis did not include flattening the Kuki-Zomi houses and bulldozing the villages in Imphal.
The previous BJP government, led by Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren was accused of partisan policing, favouring Meiteis and alienating Kuki-Zomi tribals. Therefore, the Kuki-Zomi groups had been demanding for removal of Nongthombam Biren from Chief Minister and imposition of President’s Rule in Manipur.
The Army and Assam Rifles are deployed, but clashes continue in Churachandpur, Kangpokpi, Moreh and Jiribam; and Kuki-Zomi attacks though less than before against Meitei villages at the foothills from the surrounding hills continue even after the imposition of President’s Rule in the State.
Regarding insurgency issues and militancy, New Delhi considers that the insurgency groups led by Meiteis have ties with Chinese intelligence while the Kuki-Zomi militants receive arms from Myanmar’s Chin groups. For New Delhi to carry out counter-insurgency operations may need Central rule besides the sweeping powers given to the military under the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act – AFSPA to neutralise the networks.
The Indian state has historically used prolonged Central Rule in insurgency-hit regions to weaken the insurgency movements as done in Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir. Adopting “Punjab Model” Approach like in the 1980s-90s, New Delhi may prioritise crushing insurgents over reinstatement of a new BJP government by using Central Agencies like, NIA, Assam Rifles and Army which are already cracking down on both Meitei-led groups and some Kuki-Zomi armed groups.
By extending the President’s Rule the Central Government may be attempting to break the backbone of insurgency movement led by Meiteis while taming the Kuki-Zomi militants before reinstatement of a new BJP Government in the State.
Many analysts and observers suspect that the Central Government’s reluctance to restore elected government in Manipur is driven by broader geopolitical and security considerations.
New Delhi has the concerns of geopolitical calculations. Indian pundits and mainstream analysts think that there is China’s shadow and Beijing could exploit instability through Meitei insurgents, and the post-coup Myanmar chaos make Manipur’s border with Myanmar a hotspot for arms and drug smugglers, and insurgents, greater than earlier.
Therefore, New Delhi may prefer direct control over Manipur to prevent external interference. Keeping the State under Central Rule as a Security Buffer allows tighter border control. The Central Government may be using the crisis to tighten security and curb foreign influence.
However, the challenges before the BJP for governing amidst the violent conflict that no administration can function without neutralizing militants and Kuki-Zomi groups may intensify attacks if a Meitei-led government returns before they are brought to the table for a settlement.
The BJP also faces a dilemma – restoring a Meitei-dominated government could alienate the Kuki-Zomi tribes, while accommodating Kuki-Zomi demands may cost them Meitei votes. Therefore, the Centre who is under BJP will make the Kuki-Zomi groups first agree with the proposal of formation of a new BJP government in the State with a power-sharing arrangement between Meitei, Naga and Kuki-Zomi MLAs, though difficult, could be a way forward.
Theoretically, an elected government with a broad-based mandate could help restore normalcy. However, given the deep ethnic divisions, any government formed under current conditions would likely be seen as partisan, leading to further unrest.
On the other hand, Kuki-Zomi groups already accuse New Delhi of siding with Meiteis while the Meiteis have been pointing out that the Central Government and Central Security Forces are helping the Kuki-Zomis; more Central Rule could fuel separatism further.
Prolonged Central Rule undermines India’s democratic credentials with the erosion of federalism. The judiciary may intervene if extensions appear politically motivated. It may be mentioned that President’s Rule can only be extended for a maximum of three years with parliamentary approval every six months. Manipur has already seen multiple extensions (11 times), raising legal and ethical questions. The judiciary particularly Supreme Court has grown impatient with prolonged Central Rule in conflict zones as seen in Jammu & Kashmir. Opposition Congress, Left and other regional parties may challenge further extensions, calling it “undemocratic.” While the Centre can constitutionally and legally extend President’s Rule, it risks political and judicial backlash.
If violence decreases and Kuki-Zomi groups agrees to sit together with Meiteis, New Delhi may push for a power-sharing deal amongst MLAs belonging to the different ethnic groups of BJP and its allies before reinstatement of a new BJP government.
If conflict worsens and remains unresolved, the Central Government may continue with Jammu & Kashmir-like President’s Rule, risking further alienation of Manipur’s people.
If there has to be more criticisms from the Opposition Congress, Left and other regional parties for keeping the State Assembly under Suspended Animation, the Central Government may revoke the Suspended Animation to give the way for the ruling BJP to form a “controlled” government with loyalists, avoiding fresh elections before the scheduled Assembly elections in 2027. In other words, a new BJP-led government in Manipur as good as the previous BJP-led government of Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren who was very cooperative with the Central Government may be reinstated any time and President’s Rule may be revoked once the Central Government and the BJP national leadership can convince the Kuki-Zomi groups for the need of a new BJP government in Manipur.
However, the real prerequisites for reinstatement of a new BJP government should be ceasefires between warring groups, disarmament of the armed groups who are involved in the violent conflict continuing for more than two years, talks, safe return of displaced people to their original homes and villages. The foremost prerequisites are to fulfil the needs of the people of Manipur to return to normalcy to move freely on all places including National Highways and to live in their own houses and villages without fear.
Furthermore, the formation of an elected government in Manipur remains uncertain unless the violent conflict is resolved. The intent to extend President’s Rule reflects the Central Government’s inability – or unwillingness – to address the root causes of the violence. While geopolitical and security considerations may be influencing New Delhi’s decisions, the prolonged political vacuum risks deepening the crisis. For democracy to return to Manipur, a genuine reconciliation process, rather than electoral politics, must take precedence. Otherwise, the State’s suspended animation may continue indefinitely, with dangerous consequences for India’s Northeastern frontier. The prolonged Central Rule risks deepening resentment, fueling more insurgency.
The alleged hidden agenda of the Government of India appears clear – New Delhi is buying time to weaken insurgent networks, manipulate political equations, and ensure Manipur’s stability aligns with national security interests. Whether this approach brings lasting positive peace or further alienation remains to be seen.
Senior Editor: Imphal Review of Arts and Politics
