President’s Rule, PR, in Manipur has completed three weeks. Initial apprehension among common folks that this would be a bulldozer on rampage is giving way to appreciation at what are seen as positive steps to bring back peace and normalcy in the state ravaged by a brutal and bitter ethnic conflict between Kuki-Zo group of tribes and the Meiteis. This optimism notwithstanding, there can be no gainsaying that the road ahead will have many challenges.
The Governor-in-Council under the leadership of the Governor, Ajay Kumar Bhalla, has already taken some bold steps, which unfortunately were conspicuous by their absence for close to two years of violent civil strife under a popular government. On February 20, the Governor first called for surrender of all illegally held firearms by February 28. The deadline was then been extended to March 6.
The Governor’s call has met with encouraging though not yet satisfactory result. According to police records, in the immediate wake of the ethnic violence on May 4, a total of 6020 firearms were looted by violent mobs from police stations and armouries, the biggest of which are in the greater Imphal area. Other than these, there were also lootings from licensed armed stores, at least one of which on May 3 afternoon, the day the violence broke out, was caught on multiple CCTV cameras of one such private stores at Churachandpur town and became viral on the internet on the same afternoon.
On May 31, 2023, following an appeal by the then popular government, voluntary surrender of these stolen arms began in trickles. As on February 9, 2025, the day the then chief minister, N. Biren Singh, resigned, paving the way for PR by “suspended animation”, a total of 3,422 of the stolen arms had already been either voluntarily deposited or else recovered.
Exactly a week after PR was declared on February 13, the Governor’s stern order came for the rest of the stolen arms to also be deposited by February 28 warning consequences to all who do not comply. At the expiry of the deadline, about 700 more weapons had been deposited, including quite dramatically, 246 by Arambai Tengol, a formerly cultural group amongst the Meiteis, but radicalised and militarised since the outbreak of the ethnic violence.
This makes a little over 4100 arms surrendered of the 6020 looted, at that point. The Governor has since extended the deadline for the surrender of the remaining 1900 or so arms by March 6, and newspaper have been reporting of a continued trickle of arms surrender daily ever since both in the valley as well as in the hills.
When the extended March 6 deadline also lapses, it is however unlikely all of the missing arms would be back in police custody. Since the looting was by mobs and not just by some known organisations, it is also speculated that some of the looted arms would have reached the hands of insurgents at their bases across the border in Myanmar through their supporters. Speculation is also that some joined the mobs for a share of the loots only to sell them off to the highest bidders.
What step the Governor takes to recover the rest of the weapons if a substantial number remains unrecovered is there to be seen. Will it be a further extension of deadline or else a mass combing operation by security forces, not just aimed at recovering more weapons, but also as a show of authority of the state in the spirit of Max Weber’s famous definition of the state as the wielder of monopoly over “legitimate violence”. Manipur’s problem thus far has been about the abject inability of the state to assert this authority, making many disregard the state’s authority with impunity.
The other bold step the Governor-in-Council has chosen to take is to ensure free movements along all highways in the state by March 8. This followed a stern directive from the Union Minister of Home Affairs, MHA, Amit Shah, after a meeting with top functionaries of the state on February 27 in New Delhi.
This move however is already faced with a hurdle, with a Kuki-Zo civil society body, Committee on Tribal Unity, COTU, coming out with a statement that it will not allow this free movement in what it considers as Kuki-Zo territory until this territory is granted the status of a separate Union Territory with legislature.
This demand however is unlikely to be met, not just on account of Meiteis who are averse to the idea of bifurcating Manipur, but because another major community in the state, the Nagas, claim much of the lower hill tracts Kuki-Zo tribes are now settled, have always been theirs but were conditionally rented out to the latter or else have been encroached upon, citing history and official land records.
Like many hardline groups both in the valley and hills, COTU is also one that came into prominence in the wake of the current ethnic bloodletting. When the March 8 deadline for free movement allowance expires, it again remains to be seen whose write runs – the state’s or anybody else’s. Niccolo Machiavelli’s discussion in chapter 17 of his classic “The Prince” is reminiscent here. In an ideal situation the state must win both the love and the fear of its subjects, but if winning both becomes impossible, it cannot dispense with the fear – the fear of the law.
All said, even in the three weeks since the imposition of PR in the state, there is a noticeable change in the outlook of the public at large. Prior to the arrival of PR they watched the state descend into unending chaos and wished for change, yet most shuddered at the thought of PR. This is understandable for PR is invoked in the midst of crises, ensuring memories of it is also associated with these crises.
These memories are fresh in Manipur, the state having been under PR 10 times before the present one. Being an insurgency torn state, PRs in the past have also often meant very tough measures. The fear of PR here would hence be somewhat akin to the general childhood terror associated with visits to dentists. This time too, tough measures will probably be inevitable, but we do hope they come in velvet gloves.
This article was first published in The New Indian Express. The original can be read HERE
Editor, Imphal Review of Arts and Politics and author
